John Reisman

I’m writing this as Halloween approaches and the election is less than a week away. I know how I’m voting, but I can’t say I have a lot of confidence in any poll or partisan analysis, including my own. I expect turnout and sharp differences between the Congressional Districts to determine the statewide outcome. 

Turnout on the left is driven by Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) and Platner. Turnout on the right is driven by a fear of the consequences of TDS and Platner. The late Charles Krauthammer accurately captured the motivational differences when he observed that conservatives think liberals are stupid, but liberals think conservatives are evil. Fear is an effective motivator, if not one that encourages rational analysis and debate. I don’t know if fear of Trump, authoritarianism, fascism, oligarchy, and “Threats to Our Democracy” will goose lefty turnout more than fear of TDS, socialism, and Shenna Bellows will boost right-eous turnout. Leftist turnout in the wealthier and more compact 1st CD will likely overwhelm conservative turnout in the poorer and less dense 2nd CD, as it did in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024.

My Washington County Ballot plus Bloviation:

Question #1 – Voter ID. YES. The convoluted wording of Question 1 is a direct consequence of Secretary of State Shenna Bellow’s partisan disservice to the people of Maine she hopes to govern. The same people who are doxxing ICE agents and demanding they present ID are arguing against voter ID. Democratic Socialist Platner has made a special effort to advocate for a No on 1 vote, including a door-knocking campaign in Calais. In my opinion, the supposed “defense” of absentee voting is hogwash. I expect the 2nd CD will vote Yes, and the 1st CD will do the opposite. I am hopeful that Voter ID will pass statewide, but expect, without any betting confidence at all, a narrow defeat.

Question #2 – Red Flag Law. NO. I am in agreement with Gov. Mills, State Troopers, and Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine that the Red Flag Law is dangerous and the Yellow Flag Law is working. As a selectman, I invoked a yellow flag investigation when I concluded that public safety was at risk. The yellow flag investigation protected both individual rights and public safety. I note that while candidate Platner was openly advocating for a NO on 1, he was conspicuously silent on #2. He knows that 2nd Amendment and due process rights are taken seriously in Maine, especially in the 2nd CD. I hope and expect that the Red Flag Law will be narrowly rejected, but it will depend on no votes in the liberal 1st CD. If Portland and the purple-haired nose ring crowd show up in big numbers across the state, Voter ID will be defeated, and the Red Flag law will be passed.

Question #3 – Washington County Bond Authorization. YES. I’m voting yes because I believe the likely economic, political, and social costs of county debt default and insolvency outweigh the very real costs of the bond/bailout. The commissioners and legislative delegation are to be commended for trying to find the least awful solution. I am hopeful that Yes will prevail, but I have my doubts. 

More Election Bloviation:

NYC Mayor — Mamdani the commie (sorry, Democratic socialist) will win and quickly demonstrate the Animal Farm truism: All animals are created equal, but some are more equal than others. I believe Mamdani’s election means misery and antisemitism for the Big Apple. 

NJ and VA Governor — I think Republican Jack Ciattarelli will pull off an upset in the Garden State, but Winsome Sears will come up short in Virginia.

Crowded gubernatorial primaries for both parties and Mills/Platner Senate and Golden/Dunlap 2nd CD Democratic 

Crowded gubernatorial primaries in both parties, along with the Mills-Platner Senate and Golden-Dunlap 2nd Congressional District Democratic primaries, are on Maine’s immediate June horizon, followed by the midterm elections a year later. We should get answers as to where the Democratic Party in Maine and the nation is going. I’m betting on the under 50 Mamdani/Platner wing vanquishing the “moderate” Mills septuagenarians.

Jon Reisman is an economist and policy analyst who retired from the University of Maine at Machias after 38 years. He resides on Cathance Lake in Cooper, where he is a Statler and Waldorf intern. Mr. Reisman’s views are his own, and he welcomes comments as letters to the editor here or to him directly via email at [email protected].