With an eleven-point victory in the Granite State GOP primary over last woman standing, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump is the almost-certain-to-be Republican presidential nominee. I think he is a riskier choice than almost all the alternatives, especially Ron DeSantis. Riskier means potential variance in outcomes.
Based on his business and political record, Trump has both a high performance/profitability/probability of winning the election ceiling and a relatively high probability of failure/bankruptcy/losing the election. Trump is an entrepreneur. He takes risks. Sometimes, he succeeds spectacularly with a touch of Blue and Border Wall wizardry (2016). Sometimes, he fails spectacularly with a touch of Fauci fascination (2020). If you never fail, you are probably not taking enough risks.
The weaponized lawfare and 14th Amendment campaigns have and continue to simultaneously strengthen both Trump’s Republican support and independent/Democrat distaste. If I believed in conspiracy theories, the suggestion that this is exactly the Democrat plan/PsyOp would have a certain appeal, but then I would remember that Hillary and the Dems had wanted Trump in 2016, and that had not worked out so well.
If Hillary had won, we would have Justice Merrick Garland as opposed to Justice Neil Gorsuch. There would not be any Justices Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett. On the other hand, I might have preferred Justice Garland to Attorney General Garland. Unequal justice, lawfare, and “big guy” protection are so banana republic. Moreover, without the Trump appointee reversal of Roe v. Wade (led by Alito and Thomas) and the re-establishment of state regulation of abortion, Maine would never have had the chance to pass legislation enshrining abortion on demand till birth.
That Trump had a strong record of accomplishment is beyond dispute. The strong economy, low energy prices, climate realism, the Abraham Accords, Iran deterrence, less regulation, no new wars, China is not our friend. It stands in strong contrast to the dumpster fire policies of the Biden administration- the open border (see chart below), Afghanistan, Iran appeasement, climate alarmism, expensive energy, and regulatory control.
Biden and Harris are terrible candidates. Trump is drama and risk. I am having trouble believing the Democrats will take the risk of running Joe and Kamala even against their preferred opponent, Donald Trump, but I have been outvoted on risk assessment in the Republican Party, and the Democrats I know assure me that Biden and Harris will not be replaced.
I play in a semi-regular weekly bridge game for camaraderie and mental exercise. My maternal grandfather was an excellent bridge player, coach, and teacher, and he taught me bridge, as well as pinochle, scrabble, and baseball. Sometimes, his lessons interspersed Yiddish and wisdom.
He advised me to remember about the Jews in cemeteries who neglected to pull Trump, taking the risk of allowing the defense to rough (trump) otherwise winning tricks. However, if your control of Trump is compromised and/or there is a bad split, a different strategy is needed.
It looks like Trump vs. Biden again and all the drama, division, risk, and angst that implies. Maybe Trump is the mensch on the bench, and 2024 will be yuuge. I sure hope so because this, courtesy of powerlineblog.com, is not sustainable:
Jon Reisman is an economist and policy analyst who retired from the University of Maine at Machias after 38 years. He resides on Cathance Lake in Cooper, where he is a Selectman and a Statler and Waldorf intern. Mr. Reisman’s views are his own and he welcomes comments as letters to the editor here, or to him directly via email at [email protected].